Euro 2004 by deutscher

[deutscher]

I will keep my picks in this thread, both to help me think it through, and to elicit comments from the informed majority. Feel free to add yours:

For the weekend, I have my eyes on these picks (not yet booked):

Spain over Russia -0.5 and -1 for 1 unit

I don't see anything but a Spain win, but it could be just a one-goal difference, hence the cautious line.

Portugal over Greece -1 for 1 unit

A Portugal win, but again no blowout in my opinion, hence no -1.5 for me.

Croatia over Switzerland -0.5 for 2 units

This looks to be the pick of the first go-around to me. I see virtually no chance of a point for Switzerland in the group stage, while Croatia knows they need to win, and win as big as possible, to keep pace with France and England. The lines on Croatia are curiously high, considering that only Latvia looks worse than the Swiss. Getting Croatia -0.5 at better than evens is a steal in my book.

 

[deutscher]

Based on some more thinking on Croatia, I may amend my final bet here to the pk and -0.5, covering the draw. I hope Croatia are as good as everyone (including myself) seems to think, but given that this is the first match, and anything might go, I think I will be overly cautious for now.

 

[deutscher]

So far, I have booked these picks:

Portugal over Greece -1 @ 1.926 for 1 unit (1-2 final for a loss)
Spain over Russia -0.5 and -1 @ 1.862 for 1 unit (1-0 final for half a win)
Croatia over Switzerland pk and -0.5 @ 1.962 for 1 unit (0-0 final for half a loss)

Switzerland not to get past the group stage @ 1.225 for 2 units (a win)

I will wait to see if there are any surprises over the weekend before I book Monday's matches.

Best of luck to all!

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 22, 2004 at 07:56 AM.]

 

[deutscher]

A couple of pieces of team news: As Jack Dee has already posted, Gronkjaer will most likely miss Denmark's opener against Italy. In addition, I have it from a Denmark fan that Gravesen will miss that match due to suspension. That means 2 of their best players are missing against the toughest team in that group - Italy will surely be my pick on Monday.

Croatia will be without their starting keeper Pletikosa, who tore a muscle in training. He will be replaced by Bruges keeper Butina. As far as I am concerned, this will make very little difference in the Switzerland match, so no change for me.

 

[deutscher]

I have added the following parlay:

Spain @ -0.5 and -1 (1.806) / Croatia @ pk and -0.5 (1.917) for 1 unit

 

[deutscher]

Ugh. With the exception of Spain, a very poor start to my Euro 2004 campaign, and even the Spain was half refunded.

4.25 units risked (not counting refunds), 3.267 units returned, for a -23.13% total. This counts ALL matches, including MLS and Tippeligaen.

Here we go into this week:

Italy over Denmark -0.5 @ 1.80 (0-0 final for a loss)

Germany over Holland +0.5 @ 1.654 (1-1 final for a win)

Latvia over Czechs +1.5 @ 1.676 (1-2 final for a win)

Russia over Portugal +1 and +1.5 @ 1.685 (0-2 final for a loss)

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 17, 2004 at 08:38 AM.]

 

[deutscher]

I have added:

England over Switzerland -1 @ 1.926 (3-0 final for a win)

France over Croatia -0.5 and -1 @ 1.654 (2-2 final for a loss)

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 21, 2004 at 08:43 AM.]

 

[deutscher]

Yikes. 5.25 units risked, 3.267 units returned, -37.78%.

Enough said. Waiting for Bulgaria +1 before having a flutter on that one; not touching Italy - Sweden.

 

[deutscher]

Finally picked some good ones yesterday, only to throw away most of the profit in the J-League - oh well.

Risked 8.25 units, returned 6.597 units, -20.03% return.

I need Germany -1 before I pull the trigger there, and no bet on Holland - Czechs for me.

 

[deutscher]

Back to the bad old ways:

Risked 9.25 units, returned 6.597 units, -28.68% return.

I really like this one, however:

Spain over Portugal pk and +0.5 @ 1.735 (0-1 final for a loss)

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 21, 2004 at 08:44 AM.]

 

[deutscher]

I have added:

Germany over Latvia @ 1.372 - did not like the handicap enough to go for it, so the straight win will have to do. (0-0 final for a loss)

Risked 11.25, returned 8.523, for -24.24%.

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 21, 2004 at 08:45 AM.]

 

[deutscher]

All matches, including Euro: Risked 20 units, returned 15.54 units, for -22.3%. Still lousy.

I couldn't stay away from this line, even though I should know better:

England over Portugal pk @ 2.11 for 1 unit (1-1 FT for a push)

Possibly except for their performance in the match against Spain, where Spain were poor, Portugal is to me the worst team to qualify, based on present form. England, on the other hand, played a magnificent match against Croatia and could have beaten anyone yesterday. I look for them, and for Rooney, to continue the hot hand against a poor Portugal defense.

[This message was edited by deutscher on June 25, 2004 at 08:32 AM.]